What the PATTERN Risk Assessment Means for Your Loved One's Release Options (USP Thomson)

PATTERN is the Bureau of Prisons tool used to assign a recidivism risk level - high, medium, low, or minimum. That level isn’t a one-time label. The BOP reassesses it regularly throughout the sentence, which means your loved one’s risk category (and the options tied to it) can change over time.

Risk level matters because it determines whether someone can apply earned First Step Act time credits (FTCs) toward prerelease. Under BOP rules, only people assessed as low or minimum risk can apply their FTCs this way. If your loved one is at medium or high, they may still be earning credits - but applying them toward prerelease works differently (more on the petition option below).

There's another gatekeeper besides PATTERN: opt-in status. To earn First Step Act incentives - including FTCs - your loved one must be in FSA opt-in status. They can begin this after completing the needs assessment surveys in TRULINCS. So even if someone is low or minimum risk, they still need to be opted in for credits to count.

If your loved one is assessed as medium or high risk, there's still a path forward: they can petition the Warden to apply credits toward prerelease. The Warden considers whether the person presents a danger to society, whether they've made a good-faith effort to reduce their risk level, and whether they're unlikely to recidivate. Program participation and documented effort matter here - it's not just about having credits, it's about showing risk reduction.

One of the most concrete ways to support risk reduction? Help your loved one stay focused on programs that count. The Evidence-Based Recidivism Reduction (EBRR) programs and Productive Activities described in the First Step Act guide are standardized and curriculum-based - they're administered the same way across BOP institutions, including USP Thomson. That consistency matters. When someone completes these structured programs, it creates a clear record of participation and progress - exactly the kind of "good-faith effort" that can influence PATTERN reassessments and, for some, strengthen a petition to the Warden.

• ✓ Ask your loved one what EBRR programs or Productive Activities they’re currently enrolled in, and what’s next on their list.
• ✓ Encourage them to stick with the curriculum and finish what they start - completion is easier to document than “I tried it for a while.”
• ✓ Remind them that these programs follow set protocols, so showing up consistently and completing requirements matters.
• ✓ Have them check their progress through their normal institution channels so they know where they stand on participation and completion.

Want to understand what's realistically possible next? Start by confirming your loved one's current PATTERN risk level with their unit staff at USP Thomson. Since PATTERN is reassessed regularly, the current level is what drives decisions - not what the score was months ago.

For general questions about the First Step Act or the content of the BOP’s FSA guide, you can email the Bureau of Prisons Reentry Services Division at FSA@BOP.GOV.